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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However the current field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still